The end of the recession?
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The Commerce Department today issued its figures on GDP. They suggest that the recession is winding down and that the economy soon will start growing.
The economy contracted at a 1 percent annual pace in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department. That’s a big improvement over the first quarter, in which the dip was 6.4 percent. Most analysts expect positive growth over the remainder of the year, albeit at a modest rate, and more substantial growth in the first half of 2010.
This is an excellent scenario but it also represents a sobering prospect for Republicans, especially those who are becoming giddy over the fact that President Obama’s job approval rating has declined to a little above 50 percent. An economic recovery was almost inevitable, but Obama will get credit for it nonetheless, particularly because he took action that he’ll be able to link, however speciously, with the recovery.
On the other hand, it may be some time before Obama and the Democrats can garner the credit. That’s because even as the economy recovers, unemployment will likely rise. And even if growth becomes rapid, analysts expect the increase in jobs to be much slower.
There’s a good chance, then, that next year at this time, when it matters for electoral purposes, the economic picture will be (or appear) mixed. If so, the public’s view of Obama and the Democrats will probably be mixed too.
