NY-23: Hoffman Leads - Unless He Doesn’t
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In the special election in New York’s 23rd district to replace Rep. John McHugh (RINO-NY, 40%), who just accepted Barack H. Obama’s appointment to be Secretary of the Army, a new poll for the first time finds Conservative Doug Hoffman winning with 31%; Democrat Bill Owens comes in second with 27%, while DIABLO (Democrat in all but label only) Dierdre “Dede” Scozzafava trails badly with a scant 20% — even less than the undecided response of 22%. (Sarah Palin endorsed Hoffman last week, leading to an additional $116,000+ in fundraising.)
All right, that’s the good news; the skepticism-inducing news is that the poll was conducted by the Club for Growth, the pro-Capitalism group that has backed Hoffman to the tune of $600,000; thus the poll was conducted by the very people who recruited Hoffman and desperately want to see him doing better than Dede Scozzafava, which would bolster their argument that Republicans should coalesce around him, not her. (It’s like the poll commissioned by Daily Kos that showed Bill Owens winning and Hoffman in third place.)
Too, the poll of 300 likely voters has a margin of error of 5.66%… which means that Owens is as likely to be ahead of Hoffman as the reverse (though that would still leave Dede — does “DD” stand for Democratic Decoy? — out of the running).
Take it for what you will; I think the poll is probably accurate, and I believe the race, in the end, will come down to Hoffman versus Owens. Scozzafava will fade as she comes to be seen, over the next eight days, as nothing but a stalking-horse for the Democrats: Her only function is to split the Republican vote.
I believe that on November 3rd, in a head to head race, Hoffman will overwhelm Owens, and the seat will go to the conservative — for a year. What happens in 2010, however, will depend entirely on how well Hoffman serves. So it’s a good shot for another fiscally conservative representative in Congress, but it’s not part of a permanent “revolution” unless we can sustain the gain next year.
Oh, one other unintended consequence: I see this election as completing the marginalization of the famous endorser… but I don’t mean Sarah Palin. At the eleventh hour, former Speaker, guru, revolutionary, conservative, whatever Newt Gingrich announced his endorsement — of the stalking-horse!
Newt used to represent the cutting edge of a conservative revolution; today, he represents the failed policies of the GOP congressional establishment prior to 2006 — the same folks who cynically picked (in a back-room deal) a out and out liberal, who agrees with Democrat Owens right down the ideological line, to replace the previous RINO McHugh.
The Gingrich endorsement of Scozzafava is just the last nail in the coffin of Newt’s reputation. What a shame… I really liked and respected him in the 1990s.
