Days of Diminutive, Diminishing Democrats
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Rasmussen reports that the number of Democrats in the United States — well, let’s be specific… the number of folks willing to fess up to being Democrats — is shrinking; it’s now down to 36.0% of the population (rather, of the pool of respondents in the survey).
Back in 2008, Democrats hit a local peak of 41.7% in May; at the election, they were still 41.4%… and we all know how that turned out.
At the same time, Republicans crept up to 33.1%, leaving a shrinking gap of 2.9% (Democrats minus Republicans); that of course is the real statistic to pay attention to. In November 2006, Democrats enjoyed a 6.1% advantage over Republicans; in November 2008, the gap was 7.6%. (These are numbers for “all adults;” Republicans show up and vote at higher percentages than Democrats, so the gap shrinks somewhat during actual elections.)
In November 2004, however, the gap was only 1.6%… yet Republicans only gained 3 net seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. Let’s hope that we do better a year from now.
Of course, if the Democrats keep slipping next year as they have this year — from 40.9% down to 36.0%, while Republicans rose from 32.6% to 33.1%; the gap shrank from 8.3% to 2.9% — if that trend continues (unlikely, but let’s run with it), then by November 2010, Democrats would be down to 30.7%, Republicans would be up to 33.6%, and Republicans would actually enjoy an advantage of 2.9% — the exact reverse of the gap right now.
Naturally, you cannot make straight-line projections of polling data; but it’s fun to ponder!
In November (monthly tracking, not the daily tracking poll — and we’re back to “likely voters” on this one, not “all adults”), the overall approval rating of President Barack H. Obama was 48%; his overall disapproval rating was a majority, 52%; and his “approval index” — that is, the number strongly approving minus the number strongly disapproving — dropped again to -12%, 28% minus 40%. Note especially that while 52% disapprove, fully 40% strongly disapprove; that is, 77% of likely voters who disapprove of the Obamacle do so strongly.
There’s a whole lotta head-shaking goin’ on.
